Changes in the age structure of the population pose challenges to many areas of society, such as public finances, social and health service needs, infrastructure and society's systems and practices in general. In Finland, due to low birth rates and increased life expectancy, the proportion of older people in the population is increasing. Preparations have been made for the change in the age structure in different administrative sectors, but the impact of the changes on accidents, such as home fires, has not been studied in Finland.
According to previous studies, elderly people are at a higher risk of being injured in fires. Limited capability to function may reduce the ability to react in the event of a fire and compromise the evacuation safety. As the age dependency ratio of the population weakens, the number of older people living at home can be expected to increase. The Finnish National Rescue Association conducted a study on the impact of ageing populations on regional fire safety risks (2022). The impact of different age groups on the prevalence of building fires was studied using supervised machine learning methods and spatial data on age structures and building fires from 2008 to 2020. The analysed data include age data and a geospatial grid from the Statistics Finland and accident information from the fire and rescue service’s official register of incidents. In addition, the regional impact assessment utilised open data on the key figures of municipalities by the Statistics Finland's from 1987-2021.
The results indicate that people over 70-years of age, as well as young adults (20-29 y. o.), are more susceptible to building fires than other age groups. According to the official population projection for the whole country, the number of elderly people will increase 10 % in next 50 years. There are large differences in the demographic structure between different municipalities. As the number of elderly people increases, it is likely that people will live home longer in the future, considering the weakening of the age dependency ratio and its possible impact on, for example, the resources of nursing homes. Therefore, there will be a need for more fire-safe housing solutions that are achievable regardless of the socio-economic situation. The risk of fire can be reduced, for example, with technical solutions, such as a safer stoves or stove safety devices.

Keywords: Home safety, community safety, fire safety

The Finnish National Rescue Association - Helsinki - Uusimaa - Finland